IB Maths AI HL Topic 4: Statistics and probability questions

Exam-style questions in the shape of Paper 1 and Paper 2, with full markschemes. Read the markscheme, or type, photograph or draw your answer and get it marked.

Question 1

Paper 2Hard6 marks

A city council is estimating the number of potholes on a typical 1 km road segment. It has two samples, each containing 40 segments.

The app sample consists of segments for which residents submitted reports during one month. Reports were grouped by segment, but the counts were not independently checked. The inspection sample was selected by stratified random sampling, in proportion to the number of segments in each road class. Inspectors counted and checked the potholes.

Figure 1 shows box-and-whisker plots of the recorded number of potholes per segment. Inspection confirmed that the segment represented by the value 14 had 14 distinct potholes. The value 18 in the app sample has not been checked.

For this question, a value is an outlier if it is more than 1.5×IQR1.5\times\mathrm{IQR} beyond the nearest quartile.

02468101214161820Recorded potholes per 1 km road segmentApp sampleInspection sample

The council proposes deleting both marked high values as recording errors and using the remaining app sample to estimate the typical number of potholes per city segment.

(a)

For each sample, calculate the upper outlier fence and determine whether its marked high value is an outlier.

[2]
(b)

Using your result from part (a), evaluate the council’s proposal. Recommend a defensible way to estimate the typical number of potholes, using evidence from Figure 1 and the sampling information.

[4]

Question 2

Paper 2Hard6 marks

A parcel depot records the dispatch-to-arrival times, in minutes, for equal samples of 60 deliveries on each of two routes. The summaries below give the whisker endpoints, quartiles and any outliers. The outlier is marked with a cross; there are no other outliers.

RouteLower whiskerQ1Q_1MedianQ3Q_3Upper whiskerOutlier
A12.418.122.026.029.954.2 ×
B15.219.123.027.131.0—
(a)

Calculate the interquartile range for each route. Give your answers in minutes.

[2]
(b)

A supervisor concludes that Route A has more variable delivery times and is less likely to have a normally distributed set of times than Route B. Evaluate this conclusion using the summaries.

[4]

Question 3

Paper 2Medium5 marks

At a parcel centre, XX is the excess handling time, in minutes, for a randomly selected parcel. Figure 1 shows the probability distribution of XX

012300.10.20.30.40.50.6Excess handling time, x (min)P(X=x)0.200.500.30
(a)

Calculate E(X)\mathrm{E}(X) and Var(X)\mathrm{Var}(X)

[3]
(b)

For a parcel with excess handling time XX the additional handling charge YY in AUD, is modelled by Y=3X+2Y=3X+2 Hence determine E(Y)\mathrm{E}(Y) and Var(Y)\mathrm{Var}(Y)

[2]

Question 4

Paper 2Hard6 marks

A snack company models the mass, XX g, of a packet as normally distributed with mean 503503 g and standard deviation 4.84.8 g. Packets with mass below 494494 g do not meet the lower specification. The company wants at least 94%94\% of packets to meet the specification 494≤X≤U494\leq X\leq U where UU is the upper specification.

Use your GDC for normal probability and inverse normal calculations.

(a)

Show that P(X<494)=0.0304P(X<494)=0.0304

[2]
(b)

Using your result from part (a), determine the smallest value of UU to the nearest 0.10.1 g, that meets the company’s requirement. A manager proposes setting UU to the 95th percentile of the distribution. Assess whether this proposal meets the requirement.

[4]

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