IB Maths AI HL AI 4.5 Markov chains questions

Exam-style questions in the shape of Paper 1 and Paper 2, with full markschemes. Read the markscheme, or type, photograph or draw your answer and get it marked.

Question 1

Paper 1Hard6 marks

A rail authority models the monthly change in commuters’ usual station between North (N) and South (S). The state matrix is a column matrix, with entries giving the proportions using N and S, in that order. The transition matrix is

T=(0.80.30.20.7),T=\begin{pmatrix}0.8&0.3\\0.2&0.7\end{pmatrix},

where rows represent the station used in the next month and columns represent the station used in the current month. Initially,

s0=(0.100.90).s_0=\begin{pmatrix}0.10\\0.90\end{pmatrix}.
(a)

Calculate s1s_1

[1]
(b)

Find the least whole number of months n≥1n\geq 1 for which the proportion using N is within 0.010.01 of its long-term proportion. Justify why this condition holds for every subsequent month.

[5]

Question 2

Paper 1Hard6 marks

A university models changes in students’ preferred meal-collection hub (A, B or C) from one month to the next. The columns of the transition matrix TT represent the current hub, and the rows represent the hub in the following month. The state matrices are column matrices.

T=(0.60.20.1x0.50.20.4−x0.30.7)T= \begin{pmatrix} 0.6&0.2&0.1\\ x&0.5&0.2\\ 0.4-x&0.3&0.7 \end{pmatrix}

The initial state matrix and the state matrix one month later are

s0=(0.500.300.20),s1=(0.380.340.28).s_0= \begin{pmatrix} 0.50\\ 0.30\\ 0.20 \end{pmatrix}, \qquad s_1= \begin{pmatrix} 0.38\\ 0.34\\ 0.28 \end{pmatrix}.

The same transition matrix applies each month, and the resulting Markov chain is regular.

(a)

Determine the value of xx

[2]
(b)

A manager claims that more than half of the students will use hub C in the long term because 0.70.7 of the students currently using C remain there the following month.

Determine the long-term proportions of students using each hub and decide whether the manager’s claim is correct. Give the proportions to three significant figures.

[4]

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