Question 1

Paper 1Hard6 marks

A rail authority models the monthly change in commuters’ usual station between North (N) and South (S). The state matrix is a column matrix, with entries giving the proportions using N and S, in that order. The transition matrix is

T=(0.80.30.20.7),T=\begin{pmatrix}0.8&0.3\\0.2&0.7\end{pmatrix},

where rows represent the station used in the next month and columns represent the station used in the current month. Initially,

s0=(0.100.90).s_0=\begin{pmatrix}0.10\\0.90\end{pmatrix}.
(a)

Calculate s1s_1

[1]
(b)

Find the least whole number of months n≥1n\geq 1 for which the proportion using N is within 0.010.01 of its long-term proportion. Justify why this condition holds for every subsequent month.

[5]

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