Question 1

Paper 1Easy6 marks

A campus club records which of two cafés its members visit each Friday. The transition diagram in Figure 1 gives the probabilities that a member visits each café on the next Friday, based on the café visited this Friday.

NorthSouth0.800.700.200.30

Let sns_n be the column state matrix after nn weekly transitions, using the state order North, South. On the Friday of the survey, the state matrix is

s0=(0.750.25).s_0=\begin{pmatrix}0.75\\0.25\end{pmatrix}.
(a)

Write down the transition matrix TT where TijT_{ij} is the probability of moving from state jj to state ii

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(b)

Calculate s1=Ts0s_1=Ts_0

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(c)

Hence, using your result from part (b), calculate s2s_2

[2]

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