IB Maths AI SL Topic 4: Statistics and probability questions

Exam-style questions in the shape of Paper 1 and Paper 2, with full markschemes. Read the markscheme, or type, photograph or draw your answer and get it marked.

Question 1

Paper 2Easy6 marks

A city council wants to describe the repair times for 240 potholes repaired during April. It selects 12 repair records at random. For these 12 records, the lower quartile is 4 hours and the upper quartile is 8 hours. One recorded repair time is 18 hours.

(a)

State the population and the sample.

[2]
(b)

Calculate the interquartile range and determine whether the 18-hour repair time is an outlier.

[2]
(c)

The maintenance log confirms that this repair took 18 hours because a lane closure delayed the crew. State whether the value should be removed before describing the sample, giving a reason.

[2]

Question 2

Paper 2Easy5 marks

A school records the commute times of students travelling by two bus routes. Figure 1 shows box-and-whisker diagrams of the times, in minutes.

051015202530354045505560Route BRoute ACommute time (minutes)
(a)

Write down the median commute time for Route A.

[1]
(b)

Calculate the interquartile range of the commute times for Route B. Give your answer in minutes.

[2]
(c)

State which route’s commute times may be normally distributed. Give one feature of its box-and-whisker diagram to support your answer.

[2]

Question 3

Paper 2Easy5 marks

A delivery service compares the delivery times for two routes. The values below summarize the box-and-whisker plots for each route. All values are in minutes.

RouteLower whisker endLower quartileMedianUpper quartileUpper whisker end
A1218243036
B1015202840
(a)

Calculate the interquartile range for each route.

[2]
(b)

State which route has the higher median delivery time.

[1]
(c)

State which route’s delivery times may be normally distributed. Give a reason based on the symmetry of its box and whiskers.

[2]

Question 4

Paper 2Easy6 marks

A technician records the volume of water in a container as it is filled. Let tt be the time, in minutes, after filling begins, and let VV be the volume of water, in litres.

tt02468101214
VV1017273044466064
(a)

Use a GDC to calculate Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient, rr to three significant figures. Describe the direction and strength of the linear correlation.

[2]
(b)

Use a GDC to find the equation of the regression line of VV on tt giving its coefficients to four significant figures.

[1]
(c)

Use your regression line to estimate the volume of water after 9 minutes. Give your answer in litres to three significant figures.

[1]
(d)

Interpret the gradient and the vertical intercept of the regression line in this context.

[2]

Question 5

Paper 1Easy7 marks

A fieldworker records the distance of seven sample plots from a road and the number of native plant species found in each plot.

Distance from road (m)51020355075100
Number of native plant species26811121413
(a)

Use a graphic display calculator to find Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, rsr_s for these data. Give your answer to three significant figures.

[2]
(b)

Interpret your value of rsr_s in the context of the fieldwork.

[1]
(c)

The scatter plot suggests an overall increasing, curved relationship between distance from the road and the number of native plant species. State which coefficient, Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient or Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, is more appropriate for describing this relationship. Give a reason.

[2]
(d)

If one additional observation is an extreme value, explain how Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient are likely to differ in their sensitivity to it.

[2]

Question 6

Paper 1Easy5 marks

A fieldwork study records the daily hours of sunlight and the height of a plant in six plots.

PlotABCDEF
Daily sunlight (hours)24681012
Plant height (cm)491318227
(a)

Use a graphic display calculator to find Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, rsr_s for these data. Give your answer to three significant figures.

[2]
(b)

State the direction of the association indicated by rsr_s

[1]
(c)

If the researchers want to assess a linear relationship, rather than a monotonic relationship in general, name the more appropriate coefficient: Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient or Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient.

[1]
(d)

Plot F appears to be an outlier. State which of these two coefficients is generally less sensitive to an outlier.

[1]

Question 7

Paper 2Hard16 marks

An environmental science team records water clarity and aquatic plant cover at eight ponds in one catchment. The team wants to investigate the association between these variables.

PondWater clarity (cm)Aquatic plant cover (%)
A1012
B2018
C3025
D3031
E4039
F5045
G6052
H20010

Field notes state that pond H was recently dredged. Measurements at H were repeated and agreed.

(a)

Show that ponds C and D are each assigned a clarity rank of 3.5 when the clarity values are ranked from smallest to largest.

[2]
(b)

Using all eight ponds and your GDC, determine Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient, rr and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, rsr_s Give both coefficients to three significant figures.

[4]
(c)

Calculate rr and rsr_s again, using the seven ponds other than H. Give both coefficients to three significant figures.

[4]
(d)

A researcher claims that the full-data Pearson coefficient proves there is no association between clarity and plant cover. The researcher also claims that H should be removed as an outlier and that the Pearson coefficient for the remaining ponds should be reported as the relationship.

Discuss these claims and recommend how the results should be reported. Refer to the coefficients and the field notes.

[6]

Question 8

Paper 2Easy6 marks

A filling machine produces packets of dried fruit. The mass XX in grams, of a randomly selected packet is modelled by a normal distribution with mean 500500 g and standard deviation 44 g.

(a)

Sketch the normal curve for XX Label the horizontal axis with μ−σ\mu-\sigma μ\mu μ+σ\mu+\sigma and their corresponding masses.

[2]
(b)

Use your GDC to calculate the probability that a packet has a mass between 496496 g and 504504 g. Give your answer to four significant figures.

[2]
(c)

Use your GDC to find the mass xx such that 90%90\% of packets have a mass less than xx Give your answer to the nearest 0.10.1 g.

[2]

Question 9

Paper 2Easy5 marks

A game pays the player different amounts on each play. Let XX be the player’s net gain, in USD, on one play. The probability distribution of XX is shown in Figure 1.

-5-4-3-2-10123456700.10.20.30.40.5x, player’s net gain (USD)P(X=x)
(a)

Write down P(X=1)P(X=1)

[1]
(b)

Show that E(X)=0E(X)=0

[3]
(c)

Hence state whether the game is fair.

[1]

Question 10

Paper 1Hard8 marks

At a cereal plant, the mass XX in grams, of a randomly selected bag is modelled by a normal distribution with mean 502502 g and standard deviation 4.84.8 g. A bag is accepted if its mass is at least 500500 g.

The machine can be adjusted by adding the same amount dd grams to the mass of every bag. This adjustment does not change the standard deviation.

(a)

Write down the interval that contains approximately 68%68\% of the bag masses at the current setting.

[1]
(b)

Use your GDC to find the probability that a randomly selected bag is accepted at the current setting. Give your answer to four significant figures.

[2]
(c)

The manager requires at least 97.5%97.5\% of the bags to be accepted. Using your answer to (b), state whether the current setting meets this requirement. Determine the smallest value of dd that meets the requirement. Give your answer to three significant figures.

[5]

Question 11

Paper 2Hard14 marks

An environmental field team compared aquatic indicator-plant abundance in one restored wetland and one unrestored wetland. At each wetland, 60 quadrats were selected at random. The number of indicator-plant species in each quadrat was classified as low, medium or high.

WetlandLowMediumHigh
Restored123018
Unrestored241818

(a) Calculate the expected frequencies for all six cells if wetland type and abundance class are independent. State whether the expected-frequency condition for a chi-squared test is satisfied. [2]

(b) For a chi-squared test of independence at the 5% significance level, state H₀ and H₁, give the degrees of freedom, and use your GDC to find the chi-squared statistic and p-value. [5]

Dissolved oxygen was measured in a randomly selected subset of 24 quadrats at each wetland. The summary statistics were:

WetlandSample sizeMean dissolved oxygen (mg L⁻¹)Sample standard deviation (mg L⁻¹)
Restored247.11.0
Unrestored246.51.2

Before collecting the data, the team predicted that the mean dissolved oxygen concentration would be higher at the restored wetland. Assume that the two samples are unpaired, the underlying populations are normal, and their unknown variances are equal.

(c) For the comparison of mean dissolved oxygen concentrations,

(i) write down H₀ and H₁ for the team’s prediction. [2]

(ii) Use a pooled two-sample t-test on your GDC to find the one-tailed p-value for this prediction and the two-tailed p-value. [2]

(d) At the 5% significance level, assess an officer’s claim that the fieldwork proves restoration caused an improvement in wetland quality. Use the results and the fieldwork design in your answer. [3]

(a)

Calculate the expected frequencies for all six cells if wetland type and abundance class are independent. State whether the expected-frequency condition for a chi-squared test is satisfied.

[2]
(b)

For a chi-squared test of independence at the 5% significance level, state H₀ and H₁, give the degrees of freedom, and use your GDC to find the chi-squared statistic and p-value.

[5]
(c)

For the comparison of mean dissolved oxygen concentrations:

(i)

Write down H₀ and H₁ for the team’s prediction.

[2]
(ii)

Use a pooled two-sample t-test on your GDC to find the one-tailed p-value for this prediction and the two-tailed p-value.

[2]
(d)

At the 5% significance level, assess an officer’s claim that the fieldwork proves restoration caused an improvement in wetland quality. Use the results and the fieldwork design in your answer.

[3]

Question 12

Paper 2Hard14 marks

A field ecologist investigates whether bee visits differ between a mown and an unmown meadow. There is one meadow of each type. For the first investigation, 30 distinct bee visits were randomly selected from each meadow and classified by duration.

MeadowLess than 10 s10 s to less than 20 s20 s or moreTotal
Mown8121030
Unmown1410630
Total22221660

For a separate investigation, a random sample of 12 distinct bee visits was taken from each meadow. The sample means and sample standard deviations of visit duration were as follows.

MeadowSample sizeMean duration (s)Sample standard deviation (s)
Mown1221.44.8
Unmown1216.15.2

Assume the two populations of visit durations are normally distributed, have equal variances, and were sampled independently. Use a 5% significance level for each test.

(a)

State the null and alternative hypotheses for a chi-squared test of independence between meadow type and visit-duration category. Show that the expected frequencies for the mown meadow are 11, 11 and 8.

[4]
(b)

Using your GDC, find the degrees of freedom, chi-squared statistic and p-value for the test. State your conclusion.

[4]
(c)

The ecologist predicts that the population mean visit duration is greater in the mown meadow. State suitable hypotheses and use your GDC to carry out an appropriate test. Give the p-value and a conclusion.

[4]
(d)

The ecologist concludes that mowing causes longer bee visits and changes the distribution of visit-duration categories. Assess this conclusion in light of the results and the fieldwork design.

[2]

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